Black Desert's Buy To Play Model Wont Work

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Edit 03/03/2016: Since writing this piece, it's clear that Black Desert Online is off to a superb start (400k+ Preorders according to some sources). The servers are extremely packed and the launch has been super successful so far. I admit I was wrong about the Buy to Play model not working, because it's definitely working.

Edit: 02/08/2017: I think it's fair to say at this point I was wrong. The buy to play model has been a success for Kakao Games, but I still believe that Black Desert will go free to play. By the end of 2017 is my new guess. The game regularly goes on sale for $5 and offers everyone a free 7 day trial. The next step is free to play.

Black Desert Online announced its business model and release date (early 2016) for Western markets on October 14, 2015 and shocked a lot of players by announcing a buy to play model, similar to what Guild Wars 2 had before it went free to play. I'm personally excited about Black Desert Online and played the game a bit on the Russian open beta server, but I'm disappointed with Daum's (the game's publisher) decision to choose the buy to play model. Simply put, I don't think it's going to work well.

Having perused the Black Desert Online subreddit and read a bunch of comments on my own youtube video about the game, a lot of people seem to be defending the game's buy to play model. The usual defense is “Look at Guild Wars 2: they pulled off the buy to play model for a long time and it worked really well for them.” Well, I have news for you. Black Desert Online isn't Guild Wars 2—it doesn't have nearly the same level of popularity, loyalty, and hype.

Black Desert Online isn't going to work because the game is free to play in every other region. That's right. Only the Western (NA/EU) version of the game will be buy to play. This is going to cause problems because many of the hardcore Black Desert fans are ALREADY playing on the Korean, Japanese, or even Russian servers and have been playing there for some time now. Why on Earth should they switch to the Western servers when it's going to cost them money? For everyone else, why even pay for the Western version when you can already access the Russian one for free? Sure, there may be IP blocks in the future but anyone can get around these IP blocks via VPNs. Granted, some of the game's hardcore fans will switch over to play on a lower ping, fully localized server, but even with this audience, the game won't reach critical mass. The people following the Black Desert scene today are a tiny portion of the game's potential market. With countless excellent free to play games out there, I don't think people are going to opt to pay for Black Desert.

So why did Daum decide on a buy to play model in the first place? I think it's because, despite its success, the free to play model is still stigmatized in the minds of many gamers. Even though “F2P' does have a negative connotation, most players have already accepted it as the norm. There's a very vocal minority out there that bashes free to play, but they're just that, a minority. Just look at all the free to play MMORPGs out there vs buy to play / subscription games. Free to play MMORPGs outnumber pay to play ones by more than 10-1. Even massive big budget Western games like Star Wars: The Old Republic and Guild Wars 2 have embraced the free to play model. Tera, for example, would have shut down long ago had it remained a subscription based game. Tera only exploded in popularity AFTER it dropped its subscription!

But Daum Games want to make as much money as possible. Starting out as buy to play is actually a genius business move because it allows them to get cash up-front from the game's most hardcore users. After sales start to slow down they can always go free to play. Going from buy to play to free to play is a viable strategy, but going from free to play to buy to play isn't. I think Daum Games is making a smart business decision to start as buy to play, but as someone looking forward to the game I’m disappointed.

So what's going to happen? Well, no one knows for sure, but I think Black Desert Online is going to release as a buy to play game as planned, but will quickly switch to a free to play model within a few months of release. They won't switch right away, as they won't want to upset their supporters who paid for the game at launch, but will be forced to do so when their playerbase stagnates. After the transition those who paid for the game will receive some kind of perks, like bonus XP, some cash shop funds, and perhaps some other goodies too.

Look, this piece wasn't meant to bash on Black Desert Online. I think the game is awesome and I'm actually really looking forward to playing it, but I think the business model isn't going to work. If the game remains buy to play I'll admit I was wrong, but I'm willing to wager that within a year of release Black Desert Online will be free to play in the West. Let's see if I'm right. What do you think? Are you going to buy Black Desert now that it's buy to play? Do you think it's going to go free to play? I'm curious what other people think. Let me know!

Been playing MMOs since I first got my hands on Ultima Online when I was 12 years old. Played so many games from Star Wars Galaxies to MapleStory to DAoC to World of Warcraft. Long time League of Legends player too! I'm also Known as "ReMo" and "Remotay"