RNG Isn’t Random

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For decades MMOs have been using random number generators (commonly referred to as RNGs) to determine everything from drop rates to attack damage and accuracy. Older MMOs were especially liberal with their use of RNG, quickly separating the lucky from the unlucky and causing envious strife across servers everywhere.

If you’ve been playing MMOs for a little while now you’re probably familiar with the idea of RNGesus—the MMO god of drop rates and statistical anomalies, who decides which gamers are worthy of epic loot and successful lucksack attacks. He’s a product of the system, providing a false sense of control over something outside the player’s hands.

But what if I told you that RNG wasn’t as random as you’ve been lead to believe? What if there was a way for you to tip the odds in your favor?

What Is RNG?

Most RNGs are based on a numerical system that ranges from 1 to 100. Whenever you take part in an event that utilizes RNG the generator spits out a number from the range and compares it to a set threshold to determine whether or not you succeed or fail.

The problem is that computers are inherently bad at generating random outcomes. As Steve Ward, a Professor of Computer Science and Engineering at MIT, once said, “One thing that traditional computer systems aren’t good at is coin flipping. They’re deterministic, which means that if you ask the same question you’ll get the same answer every time.”

Ward went on to explain, “On a completely deterministic machine you can’t generate anything you could really call a random sequence of numbers because the machine is following the same algorithm to generate them. Typically, that means it starts with a common ‘seed’ number and then follows a pattern. They are what we call ‘pseudo-random’ numbers.”

The pattern can be made incredibly complex and difficult to identify, but at the end of the day RNG isn’t really random at all.

A Practical Example Using Aion

(Fair warning, I haven’t played Aion in years. This example may be a bit dated, but you should get the general idea.)

In Aion, which is now a free-to-play MMO by NCSoft, maximizing your gear is incredibly important. It more often than not determines who rules PvP and who gets slaughtered indiscriminately, especially once you reach the MMO’s endgame.

Manastones are used to add stats to your gear, with higher level gear having more slots for manastones than lower level gear. Whenever a player in Aion attempts to slot a manastone it has to go through an RNG check. Each manastone slot attempt after the first becomes progressively more difficult and if you fail one attempt you lose all your manastones and have to start over. This is especially painful when you fail on the sixth and final slot of endgame gear, forcing you to have to either spend dozens of hours or massive amounts of money acquiring six more end-game-worthy manastones in order to try again.

Whenever a player attempts to slot a manastone the RNG spits out a number between 1 and 100. Success is determined by the stone’s requirement. The first stone is easy with a low requirement between 1 – 10, meaning the RNG just has to spit out 11 or higher for you to succeed. Things get harder as you continue, with the final stone check being somewhere around 80 - 95.

Essentially the RNG has to spit out a perfectly increasing string of numbers—like 10, 23, 42, 58, 76, 95—in order for you to slot all 6 manastones in endgame gear. The chances of that happening when each number is generated between 1 and 100 is extremely unlikely, leaving players understandably irritated as they find themselves constantly grinding away to get more manastones.

Manipulating the RNG

Like most players in Aion, I was having a frustrating time socketing manastones. I must’ve broken a ton of mirrors when I was a kid because lucky outcomes avoid me like the plague. (Case in point: it took me three days, grinding 8 -12 hours a day, to get a Carbuncle Ruby in FFXI.)

A friend I made in Aion took pity on me and decided to lend some of his engineering know-how. We went out into a remote location in Aion and he told me about how it was possible to manipulate the RNG in my favor and almost never fail a socket roll ever again.

Being skeptical and impatient I asked, “Why the hell are we out in the middle of nowhere?” Then he typed “/roll”, a command allowing players to make randomized rolls in game that showed up in the chatlog—rolls that were determined via the game’s RNG. Using the “/roll” command my friend explained how to see the pattern and then proceeded to fully socket two endgame items in front of me without failing once—something akin to winning the lottery twice—by using the “/roll” command to cycle through poor outcomes before each socket attempt.

Most MMOs have one RNG system that determines all random outcomes. The trick to manipulating the system is finding a means to test it and discern the pattern, e.g. raid party loot rolls, roll functions within the chat system, etc.

Sounds Easier Than It Is

Discerning an RNG pattern is much harder than it sounds. It’s not like complete-the-pattern questions you’ve seen on grade school tests. The exact numbers aren’t repeated and even in Aion there were intentional outliers involved that were meant to throw people off. It took me months to be able to sort of discern the pattern, which changed each time the server went down and was brought back up.

To be absolutely clear, I’m not telling you to manipulate your favorite MMO’s RNG system or that it’ll even be possible for you to do so. I’m simply letting you know it’s possible and something you may want to keep in mind.

True Randomization Is Possible, But Highly Unlikely

Yes, person in the comments typing away to prove they’re smarter than me, it’s possible for computers to provide true randomized results. However doing so requires an unpredictable process that most game creators aren’t going to take the time to implement because, frankly, there’s no need for them to. Even after reading this article 99% of players aren’t going to go through the painstaking method of learning how to manipulate an RNG.

Most game developers are either too lazy to make their RNGs truly random or simply don’t have the time or resources to do so. While you may never utilize the pseudo nature of RNG systems in your favor, it’s worth keeping in mind because you never know when you might stumble across an easily manipulated system.

As the age old saying goes, knowledge is power.

Until next time, I’ll see you on the servers.

I’ve been playing MMOs since Runescape became a thing in my middle school well over a decade ago. If you name it, I’ve probably played it – especially if it’s free. You’ll probably find me running around under the name ‘Locke’ or ‘LockeKosta’, which is also the pen name I write under on my gaming blog Locke’s Journey – where you can find my non-MMO related content. Hopefully I’ll see you in the comments and on the servers.